Bernie needs to win the next 22 contests with 55% of the vote.
Much fuss has been made about the insurmountable delegate lead that Hillary Clinton has over Bernie Sanders. There are still 22 contests to go in the Democratic Primary, and I’m going to resist the calls from the Corporate Media and Hillary supporters to throw in the towel and back Hillary.
Consider this: Bernie Sanders won the last 5 contests with an average of 76.3%.
But Clinton is leading with 1739 delegates over Sanders’ 1070 delegates. He needs to win 67% of remaining delegates. Impossible!
Yes, this is the media narrative, but given the fact that Sanders has won the last few states (albeit Sanders-friendly ground) by over 76%, it’s plausible that he could pull big wins in the remaining states. But 67% is a big number.
The media uses this narrative because they [heart] Hillary, and they really need her to win because… I don’t know, SuperPAC money is good for them?
But what the media are doing here is including superdelegates in their tallies. Since the supers can vote for whoever they damn well please, let’s take them out of the equation. Ah, now it looks a bit closer: 1266 for Hillary and 1038 for Bernie – a 228 delegate difference. Now, consider what just happened in Nevada. In a process that literally no one in the world understands, Sanders seems to have gained pledged delegates, but that won’t be decided until the State Convention in May. I hear that may shift the number 10 points in Bernie’s favor which lowers his delegate deficit to 208.
As it stands today, there are 1747 pledged delegates available, and Bernie needs 988 to win (before Nevada), which means he needs to average 56.5% in the upcoming contests. It’s also likely that he’ll do well in Wisconsin, and if he wins by anywhere near the margins of the last few caucuses, that average will go down to 55%.
55% is not an unachievable number. It won’t be easy, don’t get me wrong. But Bernie’s been steadily gaining in both poll numbers, and on her share of pledged delegates. Additionally, Hillary’s exhausted her supply of red-landslide states. However it turns out, it will be close, and Bernie is right to keep fighting.
Oh, but the superdelegates! Since superdelegates exits to ensure the establishment-backed candidate will prevail over a grass-roots candidate, it makes sense to assume that the supers will boost Hillary to the nomination, and this might just happen. If Bernie is able to secure the 2026 pledged delegate lead, imagine a scenario where your governor or congressman ignores the will of his constituents in voting against the favored candidate. We’ll remember that at the polls. Since the majority of young voters (aka the future of the Democratic Party) support Sanders, what message will using the superdelegate vote to nominate Hillary send, and does the DNC really think that millions of young voters having their voices silenced is going to bode well for them in November (and beyond)?
For now, don’t worry about superdelegates. Let’s just all collectively work, as Bernie supporters and Progressives, to bring him to the 2026 magic number.